Threats of port disruptions saw volumes brought forward to the first half of the year. Even with an expected easing in the second half, import volumes will still exceed 2021
US CONTAINERISED imports are likely to see a net gain compared with last year, despite an expected slowdown in volumes in the second half of this year as the economy cools.
“Retail sales are still growing, but the economy is slowing down and that is reflected in cargo imports,” said National Retail Federation vice-president Jonathan Gold.
Data from the NRF and Hackett Associates showed that US ports handled 2.3m teu in June, the latest month for which figures are available.
That was a 5.9% decline on the record 2.4m teu volumes imported in May but remains 4.9% above the corresponding month last year.
June’s results brought the first half of the year to 13.5m teu, a 5.5% increase year on year.
“The heady days of growth in imports are quickly receding,” said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett. “The outlook is for a decline in volumes compared with 2021 during the next few months, and the decline is expected to deepen in 2023.”
While numbers for July are not finalised, they are expected to see 3.2% increase over 2021, before the tide turns in August with a 3% year-on-year decline. The remaining months of the year are forecast to be between static or down on last year.
Final numbers for the second half of the year are forecast at 12.8m teu, down 1.5% on the second half of 2021, while the full year will still come out 2% higher at 26.3m teu.
The NRF said that volumes had been front-loaded this year as shippers sought to avoid potential disruptions caused by the expiration of the US west coast labour contract on July 1, with early shipments driving second-quarter volumes.
“Lower volumes may help ease congestion at some ports, but others are still seeing backups and global supply chain challenges are far from over,” said Mr Gold. “Our biggest concern is the potential for disruption because of separate labour negotiations at the west coast ports and the freight railroads. Concluding both sets of negotiations without disruption is critical as the important holiday season approaches.”
News from Lloyd’s List by James Baker