Asia-Europe air cargo space tightens as rates, fuel surcharges soar

Shippers of Asia-Europe air cargo are being hit with a double whammy of rapidly rising freight rates and soaring fuel surcharges as Middle East cargo gets rerouted, China picks up production after Lunar New Year and jet fuel prices double.

An estimated 30% of Asia-Europe air cargo is routed via the Middle East, and with options through the region severely constrained by the ongoing US-Iran war, a rush for Asia-Europe air cargo capacity is pushing up rates with hefty fuel surcharges rolled out on top.

While data from Freightos shows spot rates on China-Europe are up about 13% compared with last week, the rates from South Asia to Europe have increased 82% since before the war started. The Baltic Air Index had Singapore outbound rates up 47.6% last week compared with the previous week as Middle East airspace closures drove diversions from Gulf hubs to Asian gateways, tightening capacity.

Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said rates climbed sharply following the outbreak of war and the airspace closures, but in the last few days prices have leveled off on many lanes.

“That may reflect some capacity recovery by Emirates, as well as Etihad, or the addition of direct Asia-Europe capacity by European airlines and carriers from the Far East,” he said.

Several freighter operators and integrators have repositioned capacity to serve growing demand on Asia-Europe markets, but a protracted regional conflict could see rates climb even higher.

“If this continues, we will see increases of 100% to 200% on the short-term market,” Van de Wouw noted. “In fact, I am picking up anecdotal evidence that this is already happening in selected markets.”

Fuel surcharges on the rise

Airlines are reviewing their fuel surcharges weekly instead of every month as the war-driven spike in prices piles additional cost on top of what is already a significant portion of a carrier’s expenses.

Cathay Pacific’s cargo fuel surcharge will increase from HK$3.20 ($0.41)/kg on March 19 to HK$12.9 ($1.65)/kg from March 20. Lufthansa Cargo raised its air freight surcharge from €0.85 ($0.97)/kg to €1.20 ($1.27)/kg, effective March 16, while IAG Cargo has hedged more than 60% of its fuel for 2026 and has not announced any new fuel surcharge.

Jet fuel typically accounts for 20% to 30% of an airline’s total cost base, and with international carriers forced to fly longer distances to avoid Middle East conflict zones with reduced payloads, those costs are mounting fast.

Maersk told customers in an advisory Friday that its fuel surcharges will be reviewed on a weekly basis and adjusted in line with developments in aviation fuel prices, based on established market indexes. For contract renewals where no fuel surcharge mechanism is in place, Maersk has proposed that 15% of the rate is allocated to fuel.

Demand is also growing for multimodal alternatives, with road freight being used to move cargo from Asia to Europe and between transport hubs in the Middle East as an alternative to air.

Details please refer to the JOC news.

Source: JOC

Surging e-commerce demand lifts Hong Kong air cargo into peak season

Air freight volumes through Hong Kong will continue to grow beyond the end of the traditional peak season, fueled by surging e-commerce demand from North America and Europe that shows no signs of slowing down, according to air cargo executives.

The online shopping demand has set the world’s busiest air cargo airport on course to handle approximately 4.5 million tons of air cargo this year, up almost 7% on last year, estimates from the Hong Kong Airport Authority show.

Chandler So, air freight director for North Asia at French forwarder Geodis, said the peak season was now expected to last for at least the next two months, beyond Lunar New Year in mid-February.

“We think e-commerce has driven a 20% to 25% increase in air cargo demand in Asia this year,” So told the Journal of Commerce. “We started to see air freight volume rise from September and it has continued to grow. There definitely is a peak season rather than just a rise in demand.”

Cathay Cargo, the cargo division of Cathay Pacific, has described export volumes through Hong Kong from both the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau area and the wider China market as “extremely robust” — driven by e-commerce and dominated by trade to North America and Europe.

“Between 50% to 60% of what we carry is e-commerce-related,” said Tom Owen, director of Cathay Cargo. “Volumes have definitely picked up compared with last year [and] buyers are re-stocking.

“We are significantly ahead in cargo volumes carried this year compared with last year as belly hold passenger aircraft capacity is restored,” Owen told the Journal of Commerce.

The Hong Kong-based airline has been operating two charter flights a week to Mexico carrying consumer e-commerce products and is on course to handle about 1.4 million metric tons (mt) this year based on preliminary estimates against 1.1 mt in 2022.

Freight rate boost

The strong air cargo market out of Hong Kong and Shanghai is reflected in freight rates. HSBC wrote in a market update that air freight indices for shipments were up 36% for Hong Kong and 41% for Shanghai by early December compared with the end of the third quarter.

“China’s cross-border e-commerce, particularly from Shein and Temu to the US and Europe, is driving a solid peak season for air cargo despite muted business to business volumes,” HSBC noted.

Details please refer to JOC news.

Source:

Wallis, K. (2023, December 22). Surging e-commerce demand lifts Hong Kong air cargo into peak season. Journal of Commerce. https://www.joc.com/article/surging-e-commerce-demand-lifts-hong-kong-air-cargo-peak-season_20231222.html

Cathay Pacific back to business-as-usual soon as aircraft return

Cathay Pacific will be operating all its aircraft again by the end of next year, CEO Ronald Lam said this week, noting “light at the end of the tunnel”.

Cathay still has 67 inactive aircraft, according to CH Aviation’s database, of which 11 are under maintenance. The others, which include nine A330-300s and 22 777s, are stored in Hong Kong, Alice Springs, Ciudad Real and Xiamen.

Last month saw Cathay Cargo, as it is now branded, carry nearly 60% more freight than a year earlier, when its capacity was significantly cut owing to quarantine measures. Cathay said its cargo revenue tonne km (RFTKs) went up 154% – although load factors fell as capacity went up 206%.

“In the first two months of 2023, the tonnage increased by 42.8% against a 201.3% increase in capacity and a 147.4% increase in RFTKs, compared with the same period for 2022,” the carrier said.

Despite significant changes in Cathay’s capacity this year versus 2022, a UBS research note, published yesterday on Hong Kong International Airport’s tonnage data, failed to mention the hub carrier’s challenges. It said, instead: “While yoy volume growth in Feb may seem to be a sign of airfreight recovery, we attribute that mainly to the easy comp arising from an early start to Chinese New Year in 2023.”

Cathay, meanwhile, said Hong Kong was back in business. Mr Lam told Bloomberg TV: “Hong Kong opened up late, so there’s quite a lot of catch-up. But I think we are making good progress, and we are moving very fast as a city and as an airline. I’m very confident that given a little bit more time, we’ll be back on par with other cities and airlines.”

Chief customer and commercial officer Lavinia Lau added today that, in cargo, “ad-hoc demand from South-east Asia as well as South Asia, the Middle East and Africa also helped fill the gaps left by demand from Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland on long-haul routes”.

She added: “Turning to March and beyond, we are making good progress in increasing our capacity and rebuilding connectivity at the Hong Kong international aviation hub. By the end of March, the Cathay group will be operating approximately 50% of pre-pandemic passenger flight capacity, covering more than 70 destinations.

“We continue to add more flights to our schedule, in particular for some of our most popular destinations,” she said, noting London, Japan and Shanghai in particular.

“On the cargo side, demand from our home market, Hong Kong, as well as the Chinese mainland is increasing, with e-commerce-related traffic picking up relatively more quickly. We are progressively expanding our network coverage as more of our passenger flights are resumed.”

WorldACD meanwhile repor today global tonnages have “stabilised, following their post-lunar new year bounceback in recent weeks and their steady decline most of last year, while average rates continue their gradual softening trends”.

Source:

Lennane, A. (2023, March 17). Cathay Pacific back to business-as-usual soon as aircraft return. The Loadstar. Retrieved March 20, 2023, from https://theloadstar.com/cathay-pacific-back-to-business-as-usual-soon-as-aircraft-return/

Air Canada prepares Vancouver hub for 2024 arrival of 777 freighters

MIAMI — Air Canada’s first freighter aircraft are the most visible manifestation of an aggressive push to grow cargo business, but the airline is also building up airport infrastructure to support higher volumes and more profitable specialty products.

Without efficient ground handling capabilities the extra cargo jets won’t deliver the expected service and revenue.

Air Canada is preparing to expand its Vancouver, British Columbia, cargo terminal in preparation for receiving two 777 factory-built freighters from Boeing that will operate on trans-Pacific routes, said Jason Berry, vice president of cargo, during an interview at The International Air Cargo Association’s trade show here last month.

The upgrade is part of a large program to improve cargo hubs across its network.

Air Canada (OTCUS: ACDVF) currently occupies a stand-alone facility that processes shipments moving on passenger aircraft at Vancouver International Airport. A tenant in an adjacent hangar is moving out and Air Canada will begin work in January on connecting and refurbishing the two buildings.

“We’re in the early stages of just determining flow and process and how do you want it to look. It’s a big commitment for us,” Berry said.

In March, Air Canada completed a CA$16 million ($12.5 million) enhancement of its temperature-controlled facility at the main Toronto hub, which now offers 30,000 square feet of cooler space for pharmaceuticals, fresh food, flowers and other perishable items. The project is the first phase of a $75 million, multiyear investment in the Toronto facility, including new technologies designed to improve processing efficiency.

Air Canada also increased handling capacity by 35% at its Frankfurt, Germany, hub last January ahead of inaugural service by its first Boeing 767-300 converted freighter.

Berry said planning for a “massive” remodel of Air Canada’s London Heathrow cargo terminal is underway.

3rd freighter joins fleet

The airline is celebrating the freighter unit’s one year anniversary.

Last week, the airline’s third 767-300 freighter entered service after Israel Aircraft Industries converted the used passenger jet to carry main-deck containers. The inaugural flight arrived in Atlanta and Bogota, Colombia, according to posts by the company and an airport services partner on LinkedIn. The newest cargo jet also enabled Air Canada to launch dedicated service from Toronto to Dallas.

The carrier is scheduled to take delivery of five more converted freighters plus two production freighters from Boeing next year and receive the 777s in 2024, bringing the freighter fleet to a dozen aircraft.

Air Canada was a major cargo airline decades ago but gradually got rid of its freighters to focus on passenger business.

Management made a strategic decision to restart a freighter airline after generating large returns during the COVID crisis with cargo-only flights that replaced passenger service when travel dried up. The company realized that a dedicated freighter division would enhance the network effect of shipments moving around the world on passenger aircraft, and enable the company to capture more business from growth in Canada’s air cargo market and demand for cross-border e-commerce.

Air Canada’s freighters also serve Miami; Quito, Ecuador; and Lima, Peru, three times per week and Halifax, Nova Scotia, six times per week. From Toronto and Halifax, Air Canada flies three times per week to Madrid, twice a week to Frankfurt, and once a week each to Cologne, Germany, and Istanbul.

Berry called the freighters “seasonality busters” that make importers and exports more willing to ship year-round because transportation is more consistent and reliable.

“These global freight forwarding companies and local customers need a rich network. They don’t want you just for one lane. They want to work with airlines that have a network because that’s actually going to get the scale and we can partner the most together,” he said at Air Canada’s exhibit booth.

The freighters maintain capacity that normally fluctuates on key cargo routes as the airline adjusts the number of passenger flights between the busy summer and slower winter seasons.

“As the only combination carrier in North America we will be less subject to seasonality than any of the major carriers in the United States,” the cargo chief said.

Air Canada’s third quarter cargo revenue was 23% lower compared to last year. Berry stressed that most of the decline occurred because most passenger aircraft repurposed for dedicated cargo operations during the pandemic, including seven large aircraft with their seats temporarily removed, returned to full-time passenger duty as travel demand rebounded.

“We were flying 45 passenger freighters a day before the peak and they’re gone. It’s a good story,” Berry said, adding that cargo revenue is expected to increase next year with more cargo jets in the fleet and the passenger network recovering to near pre-pandemic levels next summer.

“We’re actually growing market share massively in Latin America and Europe. You just can’t offset all the Asia capacity that has left us because we were basically flying double daily into Shanghai with a passenger freighter, flying 10 times a week into Hong Kong. Those are all gone because now they’re back flying passengers,” Berry said.

“We can’t wait until Asia turns back on [for travel following COVID restrictions]. That’s a force multiplier for us because we’ll have cargo coming in across both oceans into our hubs to go then to distribute. And then when our 777s come in 14 months, that allows us some of our own capacity into Asia where maybe our passenger size might not be ready to fly” at 2019 levels.

Berry dismissed the possibility that there may not be enough business to go around in Canada for a larger Air Canada Cargo, as well as expansion-minded all-cargo operator Cargojet and fellow passenger carrier WestJet, which plans to begin flying narrow-body freighters in March.

Overlap is minimal because Cargojet mostly flies point to point for other carriers whereas Air Canada operates a global passenger network on six continents in which 30% of freighter traffic connects to passenger flights to reach many different cities, Berry said.

“There’s plenty of room for both because we do very different things. There’s no selling arm on that side. They don’t sell cargo. It’s just the airplane,” he said.

Source: Freightwaves