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Close to 40 transpacific services are set to be blanked over the next fortnight, with more to come in what is looking like an absolute near-term bloodbath on the lane.

Indeed, the port of LA last month reported a 12% year-on-year decline in processed volumes.

With Cosco having blanked all three of its standalone West Coast services, Linerlytica is reporting a total of 37 blankings across the major networks between weeks eight and nine, and a further 19 scrubbed over the course of March.

Port of LA executive director Gene Seroka said January imports landed at 491,000 container units, down 13% from last year’s high, and the consumer confidence index at its lowest point in 11 years.

“Everyone from Wall Street to Main Street to my street is paying attention. On the export side, we handled 100,000 teu, an 8% drop year over year – our lowest monthly output in almost three years.”

However, there near-term struggle was expected to ease, with Linerylytica and Mr Seroka expecting a uptick. The analysis suggested capacity will swing back up quickly in March, with additional capacity likely to be added from the end of April onwards.

This additional capacity will come in part from the Premier Alliance and Wan Hai, which will introduce two new US west coast services.

And Mr Seroka indicated that cargo, while down year on year, was looking better than “weak”, noting: “Purchase orders are not being cancelled; this is something we’ve witnessed in other years that were far bumpier from an economic output standpoint.

“Furthermore, I watch the purchase orders that go out – these go six months in advance to the factories in Asia – and right now those purchase orders are looking stable. This is a good sign.”

And Mr Seroka suggested that volumes this year would likely sit “at or near” last year’s levels, pointing out that he had kept in mind that this was compared with the “v-shaped” 2023 volumes, when importers were scrambling to get cargo in ahead of tariffs.

Looking at total throughput, he also pointed out that January’s result was “only” 2% off the California gateway’s three-year average.

There are those that would challenge the upbeat tone of the port director, as Linerlytica has indicated US consumer confidence was very definitely trending downwards.

It wrote in its weekly market update: “Growth in US consumer spending on goods is trending downwards, and for container shipping it is noteworthy that furniture spending growth is now negative.”

Source: Theloadstar

The big picture: Container gateways on the US West Coast in 2025 were able to hold onto market share gained in 2024 as importers frontloading seasonal merchandise from Asia due to tariff uncertainties took advantage of transit times that are at least two weeks shorter than East Coast routings. West Coast gateways remained relatively free from congestion throughout the year, and those conditions are likely to continue given the weak import volumes forecast for the first quarter of 2026.

A look back: Similar to the wider trans-Pacific market, US West Coast ports benefited from tariff-related frontloading in the first half of 2025, but that growth turned to double-digit percentage declines in the fall. Amid the roller-coaster demand movements, the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland and the Northwest Seaport Alliance of Seattle and Tacoma handled 59.2% of US imports from Asia through November, exactly the same share as in the first 11 months of 2024, according to PIERS, a Journal of Commerce sister product within S&P Global.

To handle the somewhat volatile swings in volumes — a record 1.2 million TEUs of laden imports crossed West Coast terminal docks in July, for example — port stakeholders continued to incorporate the lessons they learned during the COVID-19 pandemic. Improved shipment forecasts and information sharing among carriers, marine terminals, truckers, chassis providers, railroads and warehouses resulted in lower truck turn and container dwell times at the marine terminals and fluid operations at warehouses and inland rail terminals.

A look ahead: Cargo volumes at West Coast ports in 2026 will likely be impacted by macroeconomic forces in the US. With inflation increasing, consumer confidence declining and unemployment on the rise, US imports from Asia are not expected to see the typical pre-Lunar New Year surge in January and February. And unless some clarity and predictability in the Trump administration’s tariff policies are forthcoming, retailers are likely to be conservative in ordering spring and summer merchandise, extending year-over-year declines in West Coast imports through the first half of 2026.

The next inflection: If container lines return to the Suez Canal, East and Gulf coast ports could regain some of the market share they lost to the West Coast in the past two years.

Source: JOC