Retailers have prepared before peak season and have plenty of merchandise in stock
INVENTORIES of US retailers are fully stocked amid concern that imports are expected to decline to the lowest levels since early last year, according to a forecast.
The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates expects a slowdown because retail sales for the first eight months of 2022 are 7.5% higher than 2021, and annual growth is expected to be between 6% and 8%.
“The holiday season has already started for some shoppers, and thanks to preplanning, retailers have plenty of merchandise on hand to meet demand,” said NRF vice-president Jonathan Gold. “Many retailers brought in merchandise early this year to beat rising inflation and ongoing supply chain disruption issues.”
US container imports fell 11% in September compared with the same period a year earlier, according to a report by logistics consultant Descartes, though volumes were 9% higher than in September 2019.
The NRF projects that October imports in major US ports will decline 9.4% year on year, while further declines of 4.9% and 6.1% are expected for November and December respectively. It forecasts second half of the year imports will drop 4% compared with last year.
However, it still forecasts that 2022 volumes will eclipse 2021 by 0.7%, owing to a strong first half of the year, which saw volumes rise 5.5% year on year. The NRF’s projection of 26m teu in 2022 is also 20% higher than 2019 volumes.
August was a particularly strong month for ports on the east and US Gulf coasts, as New York and New Jersey, Houston and Savannah handled record import volumes, while Virginia had its second-strongest month for imports.
While the port of Virginia expects volumes to remain consistent throughout the rest of the year, Georgia Port Authority executive director Griff Lynch said in September he expects volumes to soften. Port of Los Angeles executive director Gene Seroka echoed that view when he announced the port’s August imports figures, which came in at an eight-year low.
Data from ports and Lloyd’s List Intelligence suggests that vessel backlogs are easing in most major ports on the east and US Gulf coasts. The number of boxships at anchorages is down to about 70, a decrease of more than 25% from early September.
“The growth in U.S. import volume has run out of steam, especially for cargo from Asia,” said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett. “Recent cuts in carriers’ shipping capacity reflect falling demand for merchandise from well-stocked retailers even as consumers continue to spend.”
The closure of factories during China’s October Golden Week holiday coupled with the Chinese government’s continuing zero-Covid policy “have impacted production, reducing demand for shipping capacity from that side of the Pacific as well”, he added.
Source: Lloyds’ List