Shippers in North Europe are being warned to expect further delays and disrupted services during August and September when a wave of inbound containers from Asia arrive at already-congested gateway ports.
Strong import demand in Europe over the past few months has kept ships full and volume growing in double digits; that demand is expected to continue through the third quarter, piling more pressure on the overstretched terminals.
“The peak will be August and September, and we also expect a peak in congestion until it gets better in the fourth quarter,” said Michael Amri, global sea freight business development manager at Hellmann Worldwide Logistics.
Hutchison Port Holdings Trust, the Singapore-listed port operator that controls Hutchison’s Hong Kong and mainland China port interests, said China’s exports to Europe in the second half of the year are set to continue the double-digit growth seen in the first half.
“Growth in China’s exports to the European Union is expected to follow the same trajectory as seen in the first half of 2025, with exports to the EU in Q2 growing by 13% year on year,” the port operator said.
Should the double-digit growth in volume materialize, the combined volume arriving in North Europe in August and September will top 2 million TEUs.
“In terms of seasonality, July is typically the month wherein the most cargo is loaded from Far East to Europe, which means arrival into European ports in August and September,” Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime and a Journal of Commerce analyst, wrote in a LinkedIn post this week.
“The lack of progress in removing port congestion in Europe is worrying seen in the light of this coming peak load of cargo,” Jensen added.
North Europe’s gateway terminals have been struggling to get on top of often severe congestion for much of the year, with ships arriving outside scheduled windows causing berthing delays and full container yards delaying the offloading of cargo.
Terminals heading for ‘code red’ summer
Stefan Verberckmoes, senior shipping analyst at Alphaliner, said he was not optimistic that congestion would improve over the summer months, which was shaping up to be a “hot summer with code red for European container terminals.”
Verberckmoes said most of the ports in North Europe that had reserve capacity were now fully operational, with the main problem at terminals being the long dwell times caused by late vessel arrivals.
“The fact that some carriers compete by granting longer free time [for containers] of course only makes the problem of the terminal operators worse,” he said.
A spokesperson for Hapag-Lloyd said none of its hub terminals in Europe were congested at the moment but acknowledged there could be knock-on effects in the coming months.
Still, Destine Ozuygur, chief analyst at ocean visibility provider eeSea, said she did not see an imminent congestion crisis across North Europe and emphasized that not all terminals were affected.
“London Gateway has been the most extreme, followed by Antwerp, then Hamburg and then Rotterdam,” Ozuygur told the Journal of Commerce.
“While vessels and services are being impacted, it hasn’t put turnover across Europe in a chokehold,” she added. “Even a port like Rotterdam that has seen stubborn congestion is reporting healthy throughput in Q2 and has seen steady reliability improvement since January.”
Ozuygur outlined the factors contributing to the persistent congestion in North Europe for much of the year. Ongoing vessel diversions around southern Africa have necessitated the deployment of larger-capacity vessels, she noted, which leads to longer berth stays and higher yard utilization. The longer transit times have also left room for more volatility and unpredictable delays.
Schedule reliability data from eeSea, in which ships are considered late if they arrive one calendar day or more after the scheduled time, shows Asia-North Europe on-time performance falling from 42% in May to 29% in July.
On the land side, Ozuygur said some ports, such as Antwerp and Hamburg, are impacted by both high yard density and major barge delays. One of the major causes of the barge delays has been low water levels in European waterways that cause capacity restrictions.
Details please refer to the JOC news.
Source: JOC
